There was a time when returning to Hawaii felt like coming home. Same beach. Same hotel. Same ritual of stepping off the plane and breathing in that warm, flower-scented air. For millions of American families, Hawaii wasn’t just a destination, it was a yearly reunion with paradise. That era is quietly unraveling.
The numbers don’t lie, and frankly, they’re a little uncomfortable to look at if you love these islands. The reasons behind the decline are layered, interlocking, and rooted in decisions that stretch from state legislatures all the way down to airline boardrooms. Let’s dive in.
The Visitor Numbers Are Sliding – And Pre-Pandemic Levels Feel Far Away
In 2025, Hawaii welcomed a total of about 9.64 million visitors, down slightly from 9.70 million in 2024. Total visitor spending for that same year was $21.75 billion, an increase from about $20.58 billion in 2024. On the surface, more money sounds like good news. Look closer, though, and the story gets more complicated.
That 9.64 million figure represents a 0.6% drop from 2024 and falls nearly a million short of the 10.4 million arrivals recorded in 2019, which was Hawaii’s highest year on record. Think about that for a second. Despite years of post-pandemic travel enthusiasm, Hawaii still hasn’t climbed back to where it was. Industry consultant Keith Vieira has noted that 2026 is projected to be flat with 2025, which itself was flat with 2024, a year already weakened by the Maui wildfires.
Hotel Costs Have Reached Levels That Defy Logic
Here’s the thing: Hawaii’s hotel pricing has moved into a category that most American travelers simply cannot justify anymore. The state officially recorded the highest average daily room rate in the U.S. at $364 before tax and fees, a figure that even surpasses major metropolitan areas like New York City and Boston. For context, the national average daily hotel rate in 2024 was just $160, meaning Hawaii’s rates are more than double the national average.
Hotel costs in Hawaii have risen about 29% compared to 2019, and despite that jump, statewide hotel occupancy averaged 73.3% in 2024, below pre-pandemic levels. That’s a telling sign. The ever-increasing nightly rates for hotel and short-term rental stays have become a final blow to Hawaii’s tourism industry, as visitor numbers decrease but many hotels and short-term rental owners raise nightly rates in order to recoup their costs with more vacancies. It’s a cycle that keeps feeding itself.
The Middle-Class American Traveler Is Quietly Walking Away
For decades, Hawaii was the aspirational trip that regular American families saved up for. One week, a decent hotel, a luau, some snorkeling. That version of Hawaii is basically gone now. Hawaii used to be planned as a middle-budget trip where a basic hotel, rental car, and simple meals could fit a family’s savings. Recent state visitor reports show a different pattern: arrivals often trail 2019 levels, yet the cost per day has climbed. In the first eight months of 2025, daily visitor spending averaged about $283 per person, up from $264 in 2024 and $209 in 2019. When airfare, lodging, and food rise together, the same household is pushed into shorter stays, fewer islands, or another beach state entirely.
A survey showed that roughly three quarters of Hawaii’s middle-income households may leave the state due to rising costs, raising the same question for visitors trying to afford a Hawaii vacation. The islands are not just pricing out locals. They are pricing out their most loyal returning visitors. As the Financial Times reported on shifting travel demand, U.S. travel demand is now cooling among middle-income travelers, while upper-income households continue to spend freely, and the mid-tier travel market is under the most pressure – exactly where curated Hawaii trips used to thrive.
The Tax Burden Is Getting Heavier Every Year
Taxes in Hawaii were already high by national standards. They just got higher. Signed into law in 2025 by Governor Josh Green, legislation raised the state’s Transient Accommodations Tax by 0.75 percentage points, from 10.25% to 11%, effective January 1, 2026. That might sound like small change, but it isn’t when stacked on everything else.
That adjustment brings the statewide accommodations tax to 11%, and when layered with the 4.25% general excise tax and the additional 3% county surcharge, the total lodging tax burden in Hawaii approaches 19%. That is among the highest in the entire country. Hawaii’s ongoing labor shortage, which disrupts hotel, restaurant, and transportation services, has led some businesses to introduce new fees or increase existing ones rather than lower base prices. Travelers feel all of it, every single time they check out.
The Maui Wildfires Left a Wound That Tourism Hasn’t Fully Healed
August 8, 2023. The date no one who loves Maui will forget. A series of wildfires broke out across West Maui, engulfing homes, businesses, and historic sites, killing at least 100 people in the deadliest wildfire event in the United States in more than a century. The tourism consequences were immediate and severe.
The University of Hawaii estimated that Maui lost more than $13 million a day in visitor spending after the wildfires as tourist numbers dropped by nearly three quarters. Even a year later, recovery remained painfully slow. In the first half of 2024, Maui had 1.1 million visitors, down roughly a quarter from a year earlier, according to the Hawaii Tourism Authority. Emotionally, what some are calling “guilt tourism” has become a quiet part of Maui’s visitor story, the uneasy feeling of booking a vacation in a place where so many lives were lost. That sentiment has kept many repeat visitors away, even as locals desperately need their return.
Flight Capacity Has Been Shrinking, and Fares Are Rising
Getting to Hawaii has never been cheap. It’s getting harder, too. In July 2025, airlift to the islands was down 6.8% compared to 2024’s numbers, with numbers expected to continue falling in the final quarter of 2025. Fewer seats means less competition, and less competition almost always means higher prices.
Another reason for ongoing tourism struggles in Hawaii is turmoil in the airline industry. Hawaiian Airlines, the main provider of inter-island flights and one of the top three for flights to and from the mainland, recently merged with Alaska Airlines, leading to much uncertainty about how services to Hawaii will be affected. Meanwhile, the cost of flying interisland has risen as reduced competition allows airlines to fill pricing gaps, with fares having already lifted from earlier lows. For a family visiting from the Midwest or East Coast, the flight is often the budget-breaker before they even pick a hotel.
Repeat Visitors Are Specifically Disappearing – And Industry Insiders Are Worried
It is not just overall tourist volume that is shrinking. It is the loyal, return-trip crowd. Honestly, this might be the most troubling piece of the entire puzzle. The president of the Hawaii Hotel Alliance called the lack of return visitors “concerning,” describing them as “the best guests for Hawaii,” and further suggested that Hawaii should concentrate on repeat guests.
The number of returning visitors has dropped significantly, especially on Maui, while new first-time visitors are no longer arriving at the pace they once were. Hawaii’s tourism authority had long depended on repeat guests to sustain demand, but their absence now reveals cracks in the strategy. Hawaii faces stiff competition from other destinations, according to state economic officials, and it is important for Hawaii to continue marketing to the world. Easier said than done when prices keep climbing.
International Visitors Can’t Fill the Gap Left by Americans
Some might assume that international travelers, particularly from Asia, could offset the decline in American repeat visitors. The data says otherwise. The Canadian market was impacted by economic and political uncertainty and recorded a decline of 11.6% in visitor arrivals in 2025, along with a corresponding drop of 8.7% in visitor spending. Canada is Hawaii’s second-largest international market. That’s not a small gap to fill.
Visitor arrivals from Canada were down more than 20% in October 2025 alone. Even Japan, which showed some recovery, still shows overall visitor arrivals remaining down compared to pre-pandemic levels. The math simply doesn’t add up to a comfortable cushion. With international visitor rates at an alarming all-time low, the weight of Hawaii’s tourism industry is being almost exclusively carried by mainland visitors on the East and West Coasts.
Competing Destinations Are Offering Better Value
Let’s be real: Mexico, Fiji, Portugal, and Costa Rica are no longer just backup options. They’ve become genuine first choices. And Hawaii’s pricing has made that comparison nearly impossible to ignore. Hawaii competes directly with other long-haul island destinations such as Tahiti, Fiji, and the Cook Islands, and once travelers arrive in those places, the daily costs can be noticeably lower than in Hawaii.
When you compare Hawaii to destinations like Mexico or Florida, where all-inclusives and package deals are the norm, the difference is stark. Think of it this way: a week in a Cancun all-inclusive could cost roughly the same as three nights in a mid-range Maui hotel, with far less stress. Travelers are actively choosing other destinations, and those choices are backed by dollars already spent. If Hawaii is absent from seasonal booking data, it could signal a long-term shift unless something changes to reverse the trend.
The Outlook for 2026 Remains Flat – And That Should Concern Everyone
Nobody in the know is predicting a dramatic Hawaii tourism rebound right now. Preliminary data from Hawaii’s Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism confirms that 9.64 million visitors came to Hawaii in 2025, a 0.6% dip from 2024 and far short of the 10.4 million arrivals recorded in 2019. The trajectory, at best, looks flat.
Tourism officials say 2026 will hinge on Japan’s recovery and how well Hawaii manages the convention center’s partial shutdown. The Honolulu Convention Center closure for repairs is expected to significantly reduce group and conference travel through 2028. The market for U.S. mainland visitors has softened and Canadian arrivals are down sharply, which particularly impacts Maui because these are the two primary markets that the island’s visitor industry relies upon. Without a structural shift in affordability, it is hard to see what turns the tide.
Conclusion
Hawaii is not losing its magic. The sunsets are still extraordinary. The water is still that impossible shade of blue. The culture, the food, the sheer wildness of the landscapes remain. What Hawaii is losing is its price-to-experience relationship with the everyday American traveler who once returned year after year, decade after decade.
The combination of record-breaking hotel rates, rising taxes, shrinking flight options, a middle class being priced out, lingering Maui wildfire sentiment, and stiff global competition has created a perfect storm. Fewer seats, higher bills, and alternatives that look increasingly attractive. The islands are still open. The question is whether enough Americans will still feel they can afford to come back.
What would it take to bring you back to Hawaii – or keep you away? Tell us in the comments.
