DAY 1 SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 14, 2026…11:50 A.M. EDT – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Pexels)
Central Kansas – The Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for this evening across portions of the region. Forecasters expect isolated supercells to develop along a dryline, bringing the potential for large hail and damaging winds. The threat remains limited by a strong capping inversion, keeping overall coverage low but still warranting attention for residents.
Outlook Details
The slight risk area stretches across central Kansas this evening, with the highest concern focused where temperatures climb into the mid and upper 90s. A diffuse dryline marks the western edge of returning moisture, setting the stage for storms to fire late in the afternoon. Coverage is expected to stay isolated because of weak large-scale forcing and the capping layer east of the boundary.
Primary Hazards
Any storms that form could produce large hail and severe wind gusts exceeding 65 knots. The tornado threat stays low, with probabilities under 2 percent and any twisters likely remaining weak. High-based thunderstorms may also develop farther south into western Oklahoma and Texas, though they should struggle to maintain intensity once they move east of the dryline.
Atmospheric Setup
Model guidance shows moderately to very unstable air in place, with surface-based CAPE values ranging from 500 to 3,500 joules per kilogram. Deep-layer shear of 30 to 40 knots supports supercell potential, while storm-relative helicity indices point to a modest risk for rotation. Dew points in the mid-50s to mid-60s add fuel, though the cap will play a decisive role in whether storms actually develop and persist.
Next Steps for Residents
The Storm Prediction Center will issue updates throughout the day, including a 1630Z revision. Local National Weather Service offices and emergency management officials remain the best sources for real-time watches and warnings. Anyone in the outlined area should monitor conditions closely and have a plan ready if storms approach.
