Republicans Surge Amid Democratic Split (Image Credits: Ca-times.brightspotcdn.com)
California – A fresh poll underscores the unpredictability of the 2026 gubernatorial contest, where five prominent candidates cluster within striking distance just months before the primary.
Republicans Surge Amid Democratic Split
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton holds a slim edge at 14 percent support among likely voters, followed closely by former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter at 13 percent, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 12 percent, U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell at 11 percent, and billionaire Tom Steyer at 10 percent.[1][2] No other contender cracks 5 percent, with 10 percent undecided. This grouping reflects a statistical tie given the survey’s 3.1 percentage point margin of error.[1]
The Public Policy Institute of California conducted the survey online with 1,657 adults from February 3 to 11. Republicans Hilton and Bianco command strong backing from their base, while Democrats Porter, Swalwell, and Steyer divide progressive and moderate voters. Independents show no clear favorite, spreading support across the leaders.[3]
Affordability Dominates Voter Minds
Cost-of-living pressures emerged as the paramount issue, cited by 61 percent of likely voters as very important in choosing a candidate. This concern resonates across parties, regions, and demographics, particularly among younger voters under 35, renters, and those earning less than $40,000 annually.[3] PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare noted that voters feel “hammered by cost-of-living realities.”[1]
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Nearly two-thirds of respondents prioritize a candidate’s positions on key issues over character, experience, or party affiliation. Meanwhile, 61 percent express satisfaction with the field of choices, though independents lag at 45 percent. Interest in candidate debates runs high at 72 percent.[3]
| Candidate | Party | Support (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | Republican | 14 |
| Katie Porter | Democrat | 13 |
| Chad Bianco | Republican | 12 |
| Eric Swalwell | Democrat | 11 |
| Tom Steyer | Democrat | 10 |
Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, February 2026.[1]
Top-Two Primary Adds Uncertainty
California’s nonpartisan top-two system means the June 2 primary sends the leading pair to the November 3 general election, regardless of party. Democratic strategists fear their nine candidates could fragment votes, propelling Hilton and Bianco forward—a scenario unseen since Republicans last captured statewide office in 2006.[1]
Porter’s support dipped from prior surveys amid scrutiny over recent incidents, while newcomers like Steyer and Swalwell gained traction through advertising. Hilton and Bianco maintained steady numbers. The field includes other notables like former Attorney General Xavier Becerra and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, but they trail significantly.[4]
- Term limits bar incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom from seeking reelection.
- 54 percent of Californians believe the state heads in the wrong direction.
- Newsom’s approval stands at 52 percent among likely voters.
Key Takeaways
- Affordability trumps all other voter concerns in the governor’s race.
- Republican duo poses upset risk in Democratic-leaning California.
- June primary looms as pivotal amid fluid voter preferences.
As the primary approaches, campaigns intensify focus on economic relief to sway undecideds and independents. The deadlock signals a fluid race where momentum could shift rapidly. What do you think will break the tie? Tell us in the comments.
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