NCAA Tournament’s Early Chalk Wave Raises Questions About Underdog Magic

Dominance Defines the First Two Days (Image Credits: Pexels)

The 2026 NCAA Tournament kicked off with a familiar yet frustrating pattern for fans of the improbable: higher seeds prevailed in most matchups during the opening days. College basketball’s shifting landscape, marked by talent concentration among top programs, amplified the divide between powerhouses and pretenders. Still, tournament history suggests that mid-major miracles could emerge later, keeping dreamers engaged.[1][2]

Dominance Defines the First Two Days

Higher-seeded teams asserted control right out of the gate, limiting major upsets and echoing last year’s tournament. In 2025, only five double-digit seeds advanced past the first round, a sharp decline from prior years when Cinderella runs captivated audiences.[3] This year’s early action followed suit, as favorites covered spreads and silenced doubters.

Analysts pointed to superior depth and experience among top seeds as key factors. Programs with robust recruiting pipelines dispatched underdogs efficiently, turning potential thrillers into routs. The result left brackets intact for chalk-pickers but dampened excitement for chaos seekers.

Modern College Basketball Widens the Chasm

The transfer portal and name, image, and likeness deals have supercharged elite teams, pulling talent away from smaller conferences. Mid-majors struggle to retain players, diminishing their chances against well-resourced giants. This structural shift transformed the tournament’s initial rounds into showcases for the haves over the have-nots.[1]

Historical data underscores the trend. Major upsets, defined as a winner at least five seed lines lower, numbered 14 in 2021 but far fewer recently.[4] Observers now debate whether the genre of deep underdog runs belongs to a bygone era.

Las Vegas Feels the Ripple Effects

In Las Vegas sportsbooks, the lack of early upsets proved costly for bettors chasing longshots. Underdogs have historically underperformed as moneyline plays in the postseason, ranking last in return on investment over two decades.[5] Oddsmakers adjusted lines quickly, bracing for continued favorite success.[6]

Popular wagers on 12-over-5 or 11-over-6 matchups fell flat, shifting action toward totals and player props. Sportsbooks reported heavy chalk exposure, a scenario that benefits houses when brackets stay predictable.

• 12-seeds advanced in just a fraction of recent first-round games.
• Double-digit seeds won only sparingly in 2025’s opener.
• Vegas lines reflect low upset probabilities for remaining underdogs.
• Bettors pivot to second-round value amid the lull.

Hope Lingers for Late-Round Surprises

Not every path closes for lower seeds. Potential Cinderellas like VCU, an 11-seed, and Santa Clara, a 10-seed, drew attention for their upset potential before the action began.[7] Teams with hot shooters and defensive grit could still spark runs as the bracket thins.

Experts highlight matchups where fatigue or overconfidence might flip scripts. While the portal era favors stability, individual heroics have overturned odds before. Fans hold out for that signature moment when an unknown squad steals the spotlight.

As the NCAA Tournament progresses, the question lingers: will a true underdog rewrite the narrative, or has the glass slipper shattered for good? Deeper rounds offer chances for redemption. What do you think about the lack of early magic? Tell us in the comments.