Florida Chamber poll: Florida’s Republican tilt holds steady – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Unsplash)
A new survey from the Florida Chamber of Commerce reveals that the state’s Republican advantage remains firmly in place six months before Election Day. Conducted between May 1 and May 9 by Cherry Communications, the poll of 604 likely voters found consistent leads for Republican candidates in two high-profile statewide races. The results align closely with ongoing voter registration trends that continue to favor the GOP.
Senate and House Races Show Clear Margins
U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Alex Vindman by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent, in a head-to-head matchup. U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds the same eight-point edge over former U.S. Rep. David Jolly. Donalds’ advantage widens slightly when matched against the other leading Democratic contender, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.
These head-to-head findings track with the generic ballot test, where Republicans hold a 49 percent to 42 percent advantage among likely voters. The margins have shown little movement in recent months, reflecting the broader partisan balance in the state.
Voter Registration Gap Persists
Republicans finished 2025 with roughly 1.5 million more registered voters than Democrats. The party now counts 5.5 million registered members compared with 4 million Democrats, while another 3.8 million voters list no party affiliation. That registration edge has remained stable even as overall turnout patterns continue to favor the majority party.
The steady registration numbers reinforce the poll’s topline results and suggest limited room for a late Democratic surge. Analysts note that the gap has not widened dramatically but shows no sign of narrowing ahead of November.
DeSantis Approval Rating Unchanged
Term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis registers a 54 percent approval rating in the new survey. That figure matches the exact rating he received from the same pollster in mid-May of last year. The consistency comes despite national political shifts and ongoing debates over state policy priorities.
DeSantis’ steady standing provides Republicans with a reliable baseline as they prepare for the fall campaign. The governor’s support has held firm even as attention turns to the open gubernatorial race and other down-ballot contests.
Economy Tops List of Voter Concerns
About one in six likely voters named the economy and cost of living as their top issue heading into November. Property taxes and insurance costs each drew double-digit support, while immigration and education registered at 8 percent apiece. These priorities reflect the practical pressures facing many Florida households.
The poll also tested attitudes toward businesses that invest in employee mental health and wellness. Seventy-four percent of respondents said they would be more likely to work for or buy from companies known for such efforts, while only 6 percent disagreed.
Business Leaders Push Mental Health Focus
Florida Chamber President and CEO Mark Wilson highlighted the private sector’s role in advancing behavioral health initiatives. “Florida Chamber member businesses are known for putting the long term over the short term and they know that focusing on making Florida the national leader in behavioral health and overall wellness is good for Florida’s future and great for Floridians,” Wilson said.
The chamber’s Leadership Conference on Safety, Health & Sustainability, underway in Orlando, aims to build on a business-led mental health report launched two years ago. The effort brings together corporate leaders, national experts, and state officials to coordinate strategies that address workforce well-being.
The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. Its findings underscore a political landscape that remains largely unchanged from recent cycles, with Republicans positioned to defend their advantages through the remainder of the campaign season.
