Trump Xi Summit Puts Taiwan Support to Test

Trump-Xi summit comes with high stakes for Taiwan, the island democracy that China claims as its own – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Unsplash)

President Donald Trump has sent conflicting signals on Taiwan since returning to office, approving major new arms sales while also discussing those deals directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This approach has raised fresh questions in Taipei, Beijing and Washington about whether the United States might soften its long-standing support for the self-ruled island that China claims as its own. The stakes are especially high as the two leaders prepare to meet this week.

Trump’s Record Arms Deals Come With Strings

Trump authorized an $11 billion weapons package for Taiwan in December, the largest ever approved for the island. He also cleared $330 million in aircraft parts in November. White House officials note that these approvals already exceed the roughly $8.4 billion in sales approved by the Biden administration over four full years.

Yet delivery of the weapons has not begun, and Trump has publicly complained that Taiwan “stole” U.S. semiconductor business. He has pressed Taipei to buy billions of dollars in American liquefied natural gas and crude oil while threatening tariffs if it does not. Taiwan’s parliament approved $25 billion in new arms purchases on Friday, falling short of the $40 billion proposal from President Lai Ching-te.

Beijing Seeks to Make Taiwan Central to Talks

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi raised Taiwan during a preparatory call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Beijing urged Washington to “make the right choices” on the island to protect stability between the two powers. Analysts expect Xi to press Trump for curbs on future arms sales or limits on high-level U.S. visits to Taipei.

China views Taiwan as a renegade province that must eventually be unified, by force if necessary. Since 1979 the United States has maintained informal ties and arms sales while acknowledging Beijing’s position without endorsing it. Experts say Xi may try to nudge Trump toward informal limits that stop short of a formal policy shift.

U.S. Officials Insist Policy Remains Unchanged

Rubio told reporters in Rome that Washington does not want to see any forced change in Taiwan’s status. He described such a move as destabilizing and confirmed Taiwan would be discussed during the summit even if it is not the main focus. National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen in Taipei said U.S. policy has been reaffirmed through both public and private channels.

Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies warned that a transactional president could still strike a deal. “I do worry that we have a transactional president and a transactional opportunity could arise,” he said. Former State Department official Edgard Kagan countered that Trump understands leverage and is unlikely to trade core U.S. interests in Taiwan for other concessions.

Semiconductor Strength Gives Taiwan Leverage

Taiwan produces the world’s most advanced chips, a fact Trump has acknowledged as vital to U.S. economic and technological competition with China. Political scientist Lev Nachman at National Taiwan University said this reality provides the strongest reason to expect continuity rather than drastic change.

The best outcome for Taiwan, Nachman added, would be minimal public discussion of the island during the summit. After Trump’s last meeting with Xi in October, the president said Chinese officials “know the consequences” of any military move against Taiwan. Observers will watch the leaders’ closing statements closely for any new signals on the island’s future security.