DAY 1 SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM CENTRAL MT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT…MARGINAL RISK OVER PORTIONS OF WV, PA, NY AND THE TX PANHANDLE… FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 13, 2026…12:20 P.M. EDT – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Pixabay)
Forecasters have drawn a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms stretching from central Montana southward into northern Utah for the afternoon and evening of May 13. A separate marginal risk covers portions of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, and the Texas Panhandle. The pattern reflects a classic spring setup where heating and moisture interact with an approaching upper-level system, raising the chance for damaging winds and isolated hail.
Where the Greatest Threat Lies
The Storm Prediction Center placed the highest probabilities across the northern High Plains and Great Basin. Scattered storms are expected to develop in an environment with limited low-level moisture but enough daytime heating to produce strong updrafts. These cells are forecast to move quickly, increasing the potential for gusty winds as they cross the region.
Farther east, a narrower corridor of instability is expected along a frontal boundary from New York into West Virginia. Storms there should remain more isolated, yet the strong winds aloft could still support brief periods of severe weather. In the Texas Panhandle, a dryline is expected to sharpen later in the day, though moisture remains modest and any storms that form would do so on a conditional basis.
Primary Hazards and Probabilities
Damaging thunderstorm winds represent the main concern across the slight-risk zone. Forecasters note that high-based storms could produce gusts strong enough to down trees or damage roofs. Hail is also possible, though the risk of very large stones appears limited outside the most intense cores.
Tornado potential remains low. Probabilities stay below 2 percent across the outlined areas, and any rotation that develops should stay weak. The eastern marginal zone carries a slightly higher chance for both hail and brief tornadoes compared with the northern High Plains, but overall intensity is expected to stay modest.
Atmospheric Setup and Timing
Model guidance shows moderate instability building through the afternoon, with surface-based CAPE values reaching 500 to 1,500 joules per kilogram in the primary risk area. Wind shear in the lowest 6 kilometers is forecast between 30 and 50 knots, sufficient to organize storms but not extreme. Dew points range from the low 30s in Montana to the mid-50s farther east, supporting the modest moisture return.
Storms are expected to initiate between mid-afternoon and early evening as daytime heating peaks. Activity should diminish after sunset once the boundary layer cools. Residents across the affected states are advised to monitor updates from the National Weather Service, particularly any mesoscale discussions or watches that may be issued later today.
Staying Prepared
Even a slight risk can produce localized impacts, especially when storms move rapidly. Anyone in the outlined areas should have a way to receive warnings and know the safest shelter options. The forecast remains subject to change as new data arrive, so checking official sources throughout the day provides the most current guidance.
