Greenpeace Questions Viability of Woodside’s Browse Project Modelling Amid High Decarbonisation Costs

‘A new low’: Greenpeace responds to Woodside’s flawed emissions reduction and renewables modelling – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Unsplash)

Perth – Greenpeace Australia Pacific has criticised modelling released by Woodside Energy for its proposed Browse gas project, arguing that the assumptions used to project emissions reductions rely on technologies and costs that remain far from proven at scale. The analysis, released in response to Woodside’s economic report on the development at Scott Reef, claims the company selected unusually expensive decarbonisation pathways to strengthen the case for the project. Western Australia’s energy transition and emissions targets now sit at the centre of the disagreement, with the state government facing pressure to set clearer reduction goals rather than allow industry modelling to shape policy.

Discrepancies in Assumed Technology Deployment

Greenpeace’s review compared Woodside’s projections against independent assessments of Western Australia’s energy system and found several areas where the numbers diverge sharply from current realities. The modelling assumes direct air capture will remove 6.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by 2050, yet global operations currently capture only 0.01 million tonnes per year. Even if costs fell to the optimistic level of 200 US dollars per tonne, the annual bill would reach 1.38 billion dollars, rising to 34.5 billion dollars by mid-century. Carbon capture and storage faces similar scrutiny. The plan requires sequestering 32.4 million tonnes by 2050, roughly 40 times the volume handled last year at Western Australia’s sole operating facility on Barrow Island. That site has repeatedly missed performance targets and incurred costs of 344 million dollars in a single recent year. At comparable unit prices, the modelled volumes would generate an annual expense of 8.6 billion dollars by 2050.

Domestic Supply Shortfalls and Levy Concerns

Additional gaps appear in the treatment of domestic gas obligations and decommissioning funding. Woodside’s Pluto facility has delivered less than 4 percent of Western Australia’s gas needs, well below the 15 percent reservation policy requirement. The modelling also includes 1.6 billion dollars from the Offshore Petroleum Levy, a mechanism scheduled to end in 2030, three years before Browse is expected to begin production. These elements together suggest the economic case rests on assumptions that may not materialise under existing rules.

Stakeholder Positions and Next Steps

The WA Campaign Lead at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, Geoff Bice, stated that the clearest route to lower emissions involves setting explicit reduction targets rather than allowing project-specific modelling to guide decisions. The state government has not yet responded directly to the latest analysis, though it continues to weigh environmental approvals for the Browse development after an earlier rejection by the Environmental Protection Authority on ecological grounds. Industry observers note that any shift toward firmer targets would affect multiple gas proposals currently under consideration in the region. Independent data from the CSIRO already ranks gas among the most expensive electricity generation options available, while separate analysis from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis places Browse gas costs at roughly four times the current average domestic price in Western Australia. These benchmarks reinforce the central tension between short-term project economics and longer-term climate commitments.